You read a lot these days about the push for more optimization in mining. Ore grades are declining and high-grade, easy-to-process deposits are becoming scarcer, forcing new projects to face greater risk. To compensate for this, miners are told to optimize and innovate more. They are doing both; including making technological gains.
Mining has gotten better at squeezing more value from each tonne of ore. So why do see mining projects still stumbling and everyone being pushed to do even more optimization?
The answer may be that the industry is confusing optimization with resilience. A mine tuned to perform perfectly under one set of conditions may become fragile when those conditions shift. And in mining, things are always shifting. Maybe the head grades don’t meet expectations or metal prices collapse. Maybe there is a shift in community sentiment or a geotechnical surprise in the mine.
The pursuit of a single “optimal” outcome might leave projects well engineered, yet poorly equipped for reality. Flexibility (or resiliency) aren’t the enemy of efficiency; they may be the only way to make efficiency sustainable.
Which Aspects Should Be Optimized
Is the concept of optimization the most important factor in a project’s design? If so, which aspect is the most important to optimize? A danger is optimizing for a single criteria, for example NPV, at the expense of everything else. Selecting the optimal design for one aspect will likely result in being sub-optimal in some of the others.
Once one has selected the aspect to optimize, the next issue becomes what to base the optimization on. Optimization typically is founded on a specific set of inputs. When these change, the optimized design will likely require revision. This then forces a new optimization, which can create a never-ending optimization loop because things are always changing in mining.
The design aspects that I have seen recommended for optimization range from:
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optimize your drill hole locations
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optimize your pit size
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optimize your production schedule
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optimize your throughput and/or recovery
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optimize your water consumption
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optimize your carbon footprint
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optimize your project design
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optimize your labour productivity
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optimize either NPV, IRR, or payback
- optimize your metal production cash cost
There are a lot of suggestions and recommendations and people will have differing opinion on which are the most important optimizations. This opinion is typically driven by their own expertise or field of work, not necessarily by what is best for the project.
Optimal vs Resilient Design
Optimization of a mining project can yield meaningful cost and efficiency gains. However mines face inherent constraints, such as ore grade variability, geological surprises, equipment life cycles, and regulatory issues.
Company success is typically driven by a broader set of variables: commodity price cycles, capital availability, asset portfolio quality, ESG and social license, M&A timing, and balance sheet strength. A perfectly optimized mine in a declining commodity or in a politically unstable jurisdiction may underperform a less-optimized mine in the right location at the right time.
Chasing optimization can sometimes lead to over-investment in a single asset, reduced flexibility, or operational fragility. The system performs well only under the ideal conditions.
Hence flexibility is important. If the mine plan is so rigid that it cannot pivot when a new high-grade zone is discovered or a pit wall becomes unstable, then one has optimized for a single scenario rather than for long-term resilience. Rather than designing for the “best case,” design for resilience.
Flexibility builds in the ability to scale production up or down, switch mining sequences, or pivot processing approaches as conditions change. Resilience has real value in mining, where geology, markets, and costs are unpredictable.
Flexibility identifies and can mitigate technical, geopolitical, regulatory, environmental, and market risks. The mines that do run into trouble rarely do so because they weren’t optimized; they fail because key risks weren’t anticipated or managed.
Workforce capability, safety culture, and leadership quality are key predictors of operational success. Optimization alone may not be able to address high turnover, poor safety records, and weak supervisory capacity. These can erode profitability far more than sub-optimal scheduling.
In my experience, the best operations have systems for ongoing learning and improvement rather than seeking a one-time optimal design. However, there is still a place for full optimization in some situations.
When does a flexible project design win?
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Commodity prices are volatile up and down
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Geological uncertainty is high (low proportion of Measured Resource)
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Mining uncertainty (limited geotechnical investigations)
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Long mine life (10–30+ years), where conditions will certainly change
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Regulatory or social environments are unpredictable
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Capital markets may require staged investment rather than full financing
When does an optimal project design win?
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Shorter mine life where conditions are unlikely to change materially
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Commodity is stable, well-hedged, or under long term offtake contract pricing
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Geology and processability is well-understood (mature, well drilled-out deposit)
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Capital is constrained and upfront efficiency is critical (you need to get it right)
Unfortunately some might view flexibility as a weakness. If a company has to change a plan or pivot, some will view that as a sign that the company is poor at planning and they don’t know what they are doing. In some cases, this might be true. Conversely the company may simply be reacting to unforeseeable outside influences.
The Path to Resiliency
If one decides to pursue the path of operational flexibility, what are the things that help make it happen?
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Design for flexibility at the start: Build project components that can scale up or down as needed. This might include wider pit ramps, larger infrastructure, some modularization in the processing system and the mine. Building a single rigid optimal design can be a trap. Open pit mines may be inherently more flexible than underground mines.
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Maintain multiple ore sources: Maintain flexibility across different mining areas and ore zones with different metallurgy or head grades means one can blend ore as needed. Multiple mining areas provide flexibility in the case of geotechnical or weather events. Multiple stockpiling is also part of flexibility in design and operation.
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Be careful consuming all high grade ore: In order to boost NPV, often most of the high grade ore is consumed early in the schedule, meaning the back part of the schedule relies on low grade material. This reduces economic flexibility if prices decrease in the future and may also miss out on the benefits if prices rise.
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Real-time data collection and adaptive planning: Real time control systems let operations respond to actual conditions rather than following a fixed weekly plan. The idea is to shorten the time between observation and reaction, not to automate rigidly but enable the system to adapt rapidly.
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Keep a cross-trained workforce: Operational flexibility may be enhanced if people can fill multiple roles. Cross-training operators means one can redeploy people as needed when conditions change.
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Maintain financial health: A company with low debt, high cash assets, and easy credit access can keep a mine on basic functionality (or care-and-maintenance) rather than being forced to sell assets or close the doors during a downturn. Financial health will help ensure operational flexibility. The major miners already know this. The junior miners learn it the hard way.
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Build supplier and contractor relationships before needed: Much like access to credit, long-term supplier arrangements might mean one can find labor and materials faster than competitors scrambling during downturns or upturns.
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Scenario-plan continuously: Run multiple what-if commodity price, head grade, geotechnical & water management scenarios regularly during operations, not just at the feasibility or permitting stage. Operations change over time, and teams that have already pre-planned “what if this happens” respond better when it really happens.
Flexible mining operations may sacrifice a little efficiency at peak conditions and not meet the fully optimized vision. However this flexibility is a trade-off for the ability to stay profitable over a range of scenarios.
Conclusion

Rather than focus on constant optimization in design, it may be wiser to focus on a flexible design. Adaptability, flexibility, and resilience may be more important than being fully optimized.
Recently I have been seeing more mining studies proposing to use the dry stack approach. In some cases, they no longer even do the typical tailings trade-off study that look at different options. The decision is made upfront that dry stack is the preferred route due to its environmental acceptability and positive perceptions.
The Guide covers several topics, including tailings characterization; site closure concepts; filtered tailings stack design; material transport, stacking systems; and tailings dewatering methods. The Guide covers all the basics very well. The one area that jumped out at me is the tailings characterization and testing aspect.
Major miners, such as BHP and Rio Tinto, typically spare no expense on material testing for metallurgical or geotechnical purposes. They have the funds available to test and engineer to a high level to adequately de-risk the project to meet their investment thresholds.
So, you just completed your initial PEA cashflow model and the resulting NPV and IRR are a little disappointing. They are not what everyone was expecting. They don’t meet the ideal targets of an IRR greater than 30% and an NPV that is more than 2x the initial capital cost. The project could now be on life support in the eyes of some.
The discounting of cashflows in a cashflow model means that up-front revenues and costs have a bigger impact on the final economics than those far off in the future. This effect is amplified at higher discount rates.
ake to the cashflow model. Sometimes several of the small ones, when compounded together, will result in a significant impact. Here are some of the other cashflow model adjustments that I have seen.
Don’t let a disappointing NPV get you down. There may be a few ways to boost the NPV by applying some common practices. However, if after applying all of these adjustments, the NPV still isn’t great, something bigger may be required. That could be an entire project scope re-think.
Two dilution approaches are common. One can either construct a diluted block model; or one can apply dilution afterwards in the production schedule. I have used both approaches at different times.
Sometimes lower grade stockpiles are built up by the mine each year but only processed at the end of the mine life. Periodically the ore mining rate may exceed the processing rate and other times it may be less. This is where the stockpile provides its service, smoothing the ore delivery to the plant.
Once the schedules are finalized, they are normally reviewed by the client for approval. The strip ratio and ore grade profile by date are of interest. One may then be asked to look to at different stockpiling approaches to see if an NPV (i.e. head grade) improvement is possible.
The last task for the mine engineer in Chapter 16 is estimating the open pit equipment fleet and manpower needs. The capital and operating costs for the mining operation will also be calculated as part of this work, but the costs are only presented in Chapter 21.
The support equipment needs (dozers, graders, pickups, mechanics trucks, etc.) are typically fixed. For example, 2 graders per year regardless if the annual tonnages mined fluctuate.
These two blog posts hopefully give an overview of some of the things that mining engineers do as part of their jobs. Hopefully the posts also shed light on the amount of work that goes into Chapter 16 of a 43-101 report. While that chapter may not seem that long compared to some of the others, a lot of the effort is behind the scenes.
So I thought what better way to explain the mining engineer role than by describing the anatomy of a typical Chapter 16 (MINING) in a 43-101 Technical Report. That chapter is a good example of the range of tasks typically undertaken by mining engineers.
There is always a mineral resource estimate available before doing a PEA. The way the resource is reported will indicate what type of mine this likely is. The geologists have already done some of the mining engineer’s work.
Before starting pit optimization, we require economic inputs from several people. The base case metal prices must be selected (normally with input from the client). The mining operating cost per tonne must be estimated (by the mining engineer). The processing engineers will provide the processing cost and recovery for each ore type.
Once the optimization is run, a series of nested pit shells are created, each with its own tonnes and grade. These shells are compared for incremental strip ratio, incremental head grade, total tonnes, and contained metal.
The mining engineer is now ready to undertake the pit design. The pit design step introduces a benched slope profile, smooths out the pit shape, and adds haulroads. Hence a couple of key input parameters are required at this time. The mining engineer will need to know the geotechnical pit slope criteria and the truck size & haul road widths. Let’s look at both of these.
Ramps: Next the mining engineer needs to select the truck size, even though the production schedule has not yet been created.
This ends Part 1. In Part 2 we will discuss the mining engineer’s next tasks; production scheduling; waste dump design; and equipment selection. The mining engineer QP will sign off and take responsibility for all the mine design work done so far. You can read Part 2 at this link “
If an engineer understands that a Mine Builder’s project will move from PEA to PFS to FS in rapid succession, then there is more incentive to ensure each study is somewhat integrated.
As an engineer, it is helpful to understand the objectives of the project owner and then tailor the technical studies to meet those objectives. This does not mean low balling costs to make the study a promotional tool. It means focusing on what is important. It means recognizing the path, and what doesn’t need to be engineered in detail at this time. This may save the client time, money, and improve credibility in the long run.
This post is just a brief discussion of mining project timelines. For those interested, there a few additional project timelines for curiosity purposes. Each path is unique because no two mining projects are the same. You can find these examples at this link “
NPV One is targeting to replace the typical Excel based cashflow model with an online cloud model. It reminds me of personal income tax software, where one simply inputs the income and expense information, and then the software takes over doing all the calculations and outputting the result.
Pros
Like anything, nothing is perfect and NPV may have a few issues for me.
The NPV One software is an option for those wishing to standardize or simplify their financial modelling.

I remember in the late fall of that year, the company had a chance to bid on a larger project in Gros Morne National Park, Newfoundland. So our President, Frank Nolan (he was a brother to Fred Nolan, the infamous land-owner at Oak Island, by the way), decided he wanted to see the site and he chartered a Bell 106 helicopter to fly us there from Deer Lake. It was December (they say “December month” in that province) and when we got close to the Park, we ran into a sudden snow squall.
The QMM field office In Port Dauphin, Madagascar was located near the edge of town, and I typically walked from my lodging to the office each morning when I was there, about the time when school started for the children. Typically I passed dozens and dozens of tiny bamboo huts with corrugated metal roofs, and dirt floors each about 2 meters square.
It is one thing to briefly visit a remote project as part of a review team. It is another thing to be there as part of a design team trying to solve a problem and engineer a solution. I know of many engineers and geologists that would have similar work life experiences as part of their careers. However John has taken the initiative to write it all down.
The majority of mining projects tend to consist of either open pit only or underground only operations. However there are instances where the orebody is such that eventually the mine must transition from open pit to underground. Open pit stripping ratios can reach uneconomic levels hence the need for the change in direction.
There are several reasons why open pit and underground can be considered as two different projects within the same project.
An underground mine that uses a backfilling method will be able to dispose of some tailings underground. Conversely moving towards a larger open pit will require a larger tailings pond, larger waste dumps and overall larger footprint. This helps make the case for underground mining, particularly where surface area is restricted or local communities are anti-open pit.
Open pit and underground operations will require different skill sets from the perspective of supervision, technical, and operations. Underground mining can be a highly specialized skill while open pit mining is similar to earthworks construction where skilled labour is more readily available globally. Do local people want to learn underground mining skills? Do management teams have the capability and desire to manage both these mining approaches at the same time?
As you can see from the foregoing discussion, there are a multitude of factors playing off one another when examining the open pit to underground cross-over point. It can be like trying to mesh two different projects together.
This pessimism training started early in my career while working as a geotechnical engineer. Geotechnical engineers were always looking at failure modes and the potential causes of failure when assessing factors of safety.
When undertaking a due diligence, particularly for a major company or financier, we are not hired to tell them how great the project is. We are hired to look for fatal flaws, identify poorly based design assumptions or errors and omissions in the technical work. We are mainly looking for negatives or red flags.
It has been my experience that digging in a data room or speaking with the engineering consultants can reveal issues not identifiable in a 43-101 report. Possibly some of these issues were mentioned or glossed over in the report, but you won’t understand the full extent of the issues until digging deeper.
My hesitance in investing in some companies unfortunately can be penalizing. I may end up sitting on the sidelines while watching the rising stock price. Junior mining investors tend to be a positive bunch, when combined with good promotion can result in investors piling into a stock.