
Recently I read a post on LinkedIn where somebody was asking what key metrics companies are looking for in order to develop (or provide financing to) a new mining project. It’s more than just a project having a good NPV or IRR. They are also looking at how difficult it is to achieve the targeted NPV.
Mining companies are always on the hunt for new projects to grow their cashflows. They would all like to find the “perfect” project; one with ideal conditions and great attributes.
However those perfect projects likely don’t exist anymore, if they ever even did.
Consequently companies must be willing to accept some potential flaws (or risks) in their go-forward projects.
The question is what flaws are they willing to accept and how far away from the ideal situation are they willing to go.
What makes a perfect project?
If one could envision a perfect mining project, what might it look like? Here are some attributes that one would want to see (in random order). If a project had 100% of these, it would be a fantastic project.
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A high grade ore orebody
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A large reserve and long mine life to ride out commodity price cycles
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Low operating cost
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Low cash cost, in the bottom quartile of costs
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Well defined ore zones, allowing simple mining with low dilution
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A geotechnically competent rock mass
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Clean and straightforward metallurgy
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Consistent and straightforward permitting regulations
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A stable government and stable fiscal regime
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Safe security conditions for site personnel
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High NPV and high IRR
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No acid runoff issues from waste products
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Stable tailings disposal conditions
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Readily available local workforce / local power supply / good water supply
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Favorable local community and stakeholder support
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Other readers may have more attributes that they would like to see if asked to theorize “What constitutes a perfect mining project?”
Take off the promoter hat
Now take an honest look at some recent (or past) projects that you have been involved with. How many of the perfect attributes listed above would be represented? It would be surprising to see them all checked off. Unfortunately that means certain flaws (risks) must be accepted when developing a project.
Each company (or financier) will have their vision as to which attributes are “must have” and which ones are “nice to have”.
But we have risk tools
There are many risk tools available to help in evaluating the potential flaws in a project. Unfortunately these tools don’t make the decisions for management.
Risk based Monte Carlo analysis requires management to pre-define the magnitude of the risks and then decide upon what probability of success is acceptable. Real option analysis or decision trees or Kepner-Tregoe are examples of other tools that can help in the decision making process.
Ultimately risk is risky. Management must make the go/no-go decision regardless of how many probabilistic histograms and tables they have generated. A 90% chance of success still means there is a 10% chance of failure. The probability of failure may be low, but it is not zero.
It would be interesting to examine recent failed projects to define the cause(s) of failure. One could then see if the cause was something that was pre-determined as a risk, either as a small risk or a large risk. Perhaps the cause was something that management felt could be mitigated or perhaps it was something viewed as highly unlikely. No doubt that successful projects also had risks, which were either mitigated or which (luckily) never occurred.
Conclusion

The bottom line is that management understandably have a difficult task in making go/no-go decisions. Financial institutions have similar dilemmas when deciding on whether or not to finance a project.

The study concluded that accessing potential deposits at depths of around 1000 m is economically feasible only if curved wells are used. The most relevant operational parameters are sufficient permeability in the ore zone and an adequate contact surface between the ore and leaching solution. The depth of the deposit is indirectly relevant, but more importantly the well installation cost per volume of deposit is critical. Hence curved wells are optimal.
I am also curious about the ability to finance such projects, given the caution associated with any novel technology. Many financiers prefer projects that rely on proven and conventional operating methods.
With regards to blockchain, it seems to me the main benefits are being related to supply chains, whether for purchasing or selling activities. Some of the examples given are that one can verify where the cobalt in your phone was mined or where your engagement diamond is from. Oddly though, I don’t recall ever wanting to know where the metal in my phone is from.
We have seen in manufacturing that robotics will eliminate repetitive type jobs. Will robotic process automation (rPA) be able to do the same by completing repetitive tasks for us?
Collecting hoards of data from a site wide sensor network creates a dilemma in what to do with all the data collected. Smart cities are running into this issue. Who can sort through the data, decide what is important and what is noise, then summarize the data and report on it in real time? A human cannot deal with the amount of data being collected in such networks.
Regarding the two technologies discussed in this blog, I personally feel robotic process automation will have far greater impact on mining industry future and its profitability.
I am not going into detail on Paul’s paper, however some of my key takeaways are as follows. Download the paper to read the rationale behind these ideas.
The bottom line is that not everyone will necessarily agree with all the conclusions of Paul’s paper on underground dilution. However it does raise many issues for technical consideration on your project.
You a create your own checklist but if you would like a copy of mine just email me at KJKLTD@rogers.com and let me know a bit about how you plan to use it (for my own curiosity). Specify if you would prefer the Excel or PDF versions.
Mining due diligence exercises can be interesting and great learning experiences, even for senior people that have seen it all. However they can also be mentally taxing due to the volumes of information that one must find, review, and comprehend, all in a short period of time.



I like the concept that Globex are promoting. I like the idea of having a one-stop shop that acquires and options out exploration properties to mining companies looking for new projects.




From time to time the Landslide Blog will examine mine slopes, tailings dams, and waste dump failures, however much of their information relates to natural earth or rock slopes along roads or in towns.

Sensors are the answer
Their belt conveyor systems (